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      9月玉米大幅跳水,10月或將繼續探底!

      來源: 赤峰和美嘉科技有限公司  點擊:14次 發布時間:2016-10-10

              9月份,國內玉米市場受利空因素云集。各地新季玉米陸續上市,而需求端疲弱態勢不改;國儲玉米拍賣依舊常態進行,成交率維持在較低水平;盡管東北產區國儲政策提前公布,但收儲價格大幅下調。市場心態的嚴重偏空,使得產銷區玉米價格大幅下跌。

        市場監測顯示,月初9月1日3等黃玉米均價為2252.00元/噸,月末9月30日均價為2083.33元/噸,月度下滑168.67元/噸,下跌幅為7.49%。

        從當前市場來看,國儲庫存依舊巨大,整體成交清淡;新糧已經紛紛上市,貿易商看空心理加重,出庫積極性較高。而最為承接方下游需求并沒有明顯改善,市場供給壓力凸顯。由于國家臨時存儲玉米收購政策11月1日開始實施,估計10月份的玉米價格或將繼續探底。

        東北地區玉米價格持續走軟

        近期東北產區繼續維持低迷行情,市場收購主體稀少,貿易商出貨意愿積極,下游企業承接力明顯不足。盡管國家臨儲收購政策已經出臺,但由于擔憂價格繼續下行,市場多持觀望心理。當前東北新糧主要來自遼寧,吉林及黑龍江兩省新季玉米大量收割將在國慶之后進行。

        截止9月底,吉林四平地區14%水分一等陳玉米貿易商出庫價格為2100-2140元/噸,周比下降50元/噸;遼寧沈陽地區一等陳玉米貿易商出庫價格為2100-2120元/噸,黑龍江雙鴨山14.5%水分三等新玉米貿易商出庫價格為1920-1940元/噸,均周比下降80元/噸。

        華北地區玉米價格大幅下行

        9月下旬以來,華北產區市場新糧逐漸增多,加之今年臨儲價格調整幅度較大,市場悲觀心態加劇,企業及貿易商對后市看空,深加工企業連續下調廠門收購價格,導致玉米價格大幅下行。

        截止9月底,山東濰坊地區深加工企業14%水分二等新玉米收購價格為1800-1900元/噸,周比下降180-220元/噸;河北秦皇島地區深加工企業收購價格為1890-1910元/噸,周比下降60元/噸;河南信陽地區15%水分二等新玉米飼料企業收購價格為1820-1840元/噸,周比下降100元/噸。當前,華北產區大多企業新陳玉米收購價格一致。

        南北港口玉米價格雙雙走弱

        近期受華北地區價格大幅下挫及東北新糧價格偏低影響,目前北方港口收購主體極少,多數企業維持觀望。南港購銷依舊疲弱,一方面受華北低價玉米沖擊影響,另一方面下游企業采購意愿不佳。

        截止9月底,鲅魚圈港15%水分以內,容重700g/L以上,生霉率2%以內的遼寧新玉米收購價2010-2030元/噸,理論平倉價2060-2100元/噸,均周比下降20元/噸;錦州港口遼寧新玉米收購價2030元/噸,理論平倉價2080-2100元/噸,周比基本持平。廣東深圳港口14.5%水分遼吉優質玉米成交價格為2230-2250元/噸,周比下降20-30元/噸,質量偏差的玉米價格為2100-2150元/噸,比上周下降20-50元/噸。

        目前北方港口玉米到廣東港口成本價為2160-2200元/噸,貿易利潤50-70元/噸。市場預計,當前北方港口優質玉米價格已經跌至臨儲收購價格附近,再跌幅度不大;而南方港口玉米價格仍有下降空間,估計南北港口玉米貿易利潤將會逐步縮小。玉米拍賣同比斷崖式下滑

        9月份,國家共舉行國家臨時存儲玉米競價銷售交易會三次。計劃銷售國家臨時存儲玉米1558.34萬噸,實際成交20.83萬噸噸,平均成交率為1.34%,較8月份更加低迷。

        據統計,今年臨儲玉米拍賣至今累計總成交量583萬噸,比上年同期下降80%。具體來看,今年東北地區臨儲玉米累計成交566.9萬噸,進口玉米累計成交14.08萬噸,跨省移庫玉米累計成交僅1.88萬噸。經過近兩年的拍賣,2012年的3083萬噸臨儲玉米已拍賣成交2137萬噸,2013年的6919萬噸玉米已成交915萬噸。

        根據測算,截至目前我國臨儲玉米結余量仍在1.5億噸的高位水平。

        利空籠罩玉米仍有下跌空間

        從政策上看,新季玉米收儲政策利空市場。一是收儲價格大幅下調,三省一價政策調整后,收儲價格較去年平均降幅在10%左右;二是玉米收儲的質量標準提高,其中不完善粒中生霉含量超過2%的要求按照規定用途使用。價格控制更嚴格,相當于變相降價收購。三是收購主體中僅新增中航工業集團,在陳玉米社會總庫存高企的情況下,今年國儲敞開收購的庫容條件或難以滿足,這樣敞開收購的概率大幅下降。

        從供給上看,玉米市場供給壓力劇增。相關機構發布的報告,將2015/16年度中國玉米產量預測值下調至2.29億噸,較早先預測值調低300萬噸。不過調低后的玉米產量仍然創下歷史最高紀錄,較上年產量增長6.2%。另國家交易中心今年拍賣情況顯示,本年度至今累計拍賣成交玉米量僅為583萬噸,遠低于市場預期的2000-3000萬噸規模,去庫存九牛一毛。

        從需求上看,玉米深加工及飼料消費持續低迷。統計數據顯示,2015年我國生豬存欄連續9個月下降,比前4年平均水平低14%,能繁母豬連續22個月下降,比前4年平均水平低19.4%。盡管近來生豬存欄環比有所增加,但考慮到小豬到成豬的生長周期較長,對飼料消費的拉動性影響短期內仍難以顯現。


        深加工方面,6月份以來玉米加工行業虧損情況不斷擴大,今年除玉米油有上漲外,其他三種副產品跌幅較大,其中玉米皮和玉米粕跌幅達到50%。以山東地區為例,自7月份以來當地的玉米淀粉價格從6月份的2900元/噸大幅回落到2500-2600元/噸,企業淀粉加工虧損在350-400元/噸。據了解,從8月份以來多數淀粉企業加工率大幅下滑,目前大多處于停產或停產一半的狀態。


        從進口來看,進口玉米及低價替代品大量增加。海關數據顯示,2015年8月份我國進口玉米60.76萬噸,環比下降45.14%,同比增長354.74%。2014/15年度至今我國累計進口玉米535萬噸,同比增長64%。

        8月份我國進口高粱54.89萬噸,2014/2015年度至今累計進口高粱達909萬噸,同比增長175%。8月份進口DDGS為79.35萬噸,2014/2015年度以來累計進口DDGS為468萬噸。8月份進口大麥77.82萬噸,2014/2015年度至今累計進口大麥856萬噸,同比增長107%。



      The English version

      In September, the domestic market by negative factors gathered corn. Around the corn in the new season, and the weakness in demand side do not change; State reserve auction are still the norm for corn, conversion rates stay low; Although the northeast region of reserve policy announced in advance, but purchase prices sharply lower. Serious bearish market mentality, making ChanXiao District corn prices fell sharply.

      Market monitoring shows that at the beginning of September 1, 3 yellow corn such as average price of 2252.00 yuan/ton, in late September 30 average price of 2083.33 yuan/ton, monthly decline in 168.67 yuan/ton, down 7.49%.

      From the perspective of the current market, the store inventory is still huge, whole light volume; New food has been listed in succession, traders bearish psychology is aggravating, outbound enthusiasm is higher. Most accept party did not significantly improve the downstream demand, market supply pressure. Because of the temporary storage of corn by the state policy began on November 1, estimate the price of corn in October or will continue to fall.

      Corn prices continued weakness in northeast China

      Recent downturn to maintain market of northeast region, market purchase subject scarce, traders shipment will actively, the downstream enterprises to undertake force obviously inadequate. Although the national in the store to buy policy has been issued, but due to concerns about prices continue downward, the market more than wait. The current northeast new food mainly comes from liaoning, jilin and heilongjiang provinces on the new season a lot of harvest corn will take place after the National Day.

      Jilin siping area by the end of September, 14% moisture wait Chen corn traders outbound price for 2100-2140 yuan/ton, weeks than drop 50 yuan/ton; Liaoning shenyang area first-class Chen corn traders outbound price for 2100-2120 yuan/ton, heilongjiang shuangyashan 14.5% moisture third-class new corn traders outbound price for 1920-1940 yuan/ton, all week than fell 80 yuan/ton.

      Corn prices in north China sharply downward

      Since late September, the north China region market new grain increase gradually, and because the price of this year over the storage adjustment range is larger, the market pessimism, enterprises and traders to afternoon bearish, deep processing enterprise continuous price cut gate, corn prices sharply downward.

      By the end of September, shandong weifang area 14% moisture second-class new corn deep processing enterprises purchase price is 1800-1900 yuan/ton, weeks than the decline in 180-220 yuan/ton; Hebei qinhuangdao area deep processing enterprise purchase price is 1890-1910 yuan/ton, weeks than dropped 60 yuan/ton; Henan xinyang area 15% moisture second-class new corn feed enterprise purchase price is 1820-1840 yuan/ton, weeks than fell 100 yuan/ton. At present, most of north China region enterprises new Chen corn prices.

      North and south port corn prices have been weakening

      Recent prices have fallen sharply in north China and northeast new grain price is low, the northern port acquisition subject few, most companies keep watching. Nangang procurement is still weak, on the one hand, influenced by cheap corn shocks of north China, on the other hand the downstream enterprise procurement will not beautiful.

      Port by the end of September, BaYuJuan within 15% moisture content, unit weight of 700 g/L above, mildew rate less than 2% of liaoning new corn price 2010-2030 yuan/ton, the theory of unwinding price 2060-2100 yuan/ton, all week than drop 20 yuan/ton; Jinzhou port in liaoning new corn price 2030 yuan/ton, the theory of unwinding price 2080-2100 yuan/ton, weeks than flat. Port, shenzhen city, guangdong province 14.5% water alternating high quality corn clinch a deal the price is 2230-2250 yuan/ton, weeks than drop 20-30 yuan/ton, quality deviation of corn prices for 2100-2150 yuan/ton, 20 to 50 yuan/ton lower than last week.

      At present the northern port of corn to guangdong port cost price is 2160-2200 yuan/ton, trade profit 50-70 yuan/ton. Market is expected, the current in the northern port high-quality corn prices have dropped to store near the purchase price, again fall modestly; The southern port of corn prices are still falling space, estimates the corn trade port will gradually reduce profits. Decline in corn auction bluff compared to the same type

      In September, the state has held national temporary storage corn auction fair three times. Plan sales countries temporary storage 15.5834 million tons of corn, the actual clinch a deal of 208300 tons, the average conversion rates at 1.34%, is even lower in August.

      This year, according to statistics, in the store auction has the accumulative total volume of 5.83 million tons of corn, fell by 80% year-on-year. Specific view, clinch a deal in the northeast corn storage of the year, 5.669 million tons of corn accumulative total 140800 tons, move across the province library corn clinch a deal the only 18800 tons. After nearly two years of auction, 2012 tonnes in 30.83 million in the store has sold at auction 21.37 million tons of corn, 2013, 69.19 million tons of corn has a deal of 9.15 million tons.

      According to the calculation, so far our country store corn surplus quantity is still in the 150 million tons of high level.

      A bearish corn still has to fall

      From a policy point of view, the new season corn purchase policy bearish market. One is for purchasing prices slashed, three provinces after adjustment of price policy from last year the average purchase price is around 10%; Second, corn purchase quality standard, the imperfect grain mildew in the USES of the content is more than 2% of the requirements in accordance with the relevant provisions. Price control more strictly, akin to reduce the price. Three is to buy new China aviation industry group, only in the body of the Chen corn under the condition of high social total inventory, this year the store open purchase storage conditions, or difficult to meet, so open acquisition probability has fallen dramatically.

      Look from the supply, corn market supply pressure surge. Agencies report that will be 2015/16 Chinese maize yield forecast to 229 million tons, the earlier forecast of 3 million tons. But lower after maize yield is still to a record high, output grew by 6.2% on the previous year. Other countries trading center auction this year, according to the year to date auction corn quantity is 5.83 million tons, only is far lower than the market expected 2000-30 million tons scale, to stock a drop in the bucket.

      From the point of view of demand, corn processing and feed consumption remains weak. Statistics show that in 2015 China's live pig amount of nine consecutive months of decline, 14% lower than in the past 4 years average, to numerous sows falling for 22 months, average 19.4% lower than the previous four years. Despite recent pig amount of monthly increase, but considering the pig to pig growth cycle is long, to feed consumption of drawing was affected in the short term is difficult to show.


      Deep processing, since June losses growing corn processing industry, this year in addition to the corn oil is rising, the other three heavy falls in by-products, including corn and corn meal or 50%. In shandong area, for example, since July local corn starch from June 2900 yuan/ton price dropped sharply to 2500-2600 yuan/ton, starch processing losses in 350-400 yuan/ton. It is understood that since August, most of the starch in the decline of the processing enterprises, are currently in production or shut down half of the state.


      From the point of import, import corn and cheaper alternatives. Customs data show that in August 2015, China imported 607600 tons of corn, fell by 45.14%, up 354.74% from a year earlier. 2014/15 has accumulated in China imported 5.35 million tons of corn, up 64% from a year earlier.

      China imported 548900 tons of sorghum in August, 2014/2015 have imported 9.09 million tons of sorghum, up 175% from a year earlier. Imported DDGS in August of 793500 tons, imported DDGS since the 2014/2015 of 4.68 million tons. Imported 778200 tons of barley in August, 2014/2015 have imported 8.56 million tons of barley, up 107% from a year earlier.

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